Warcraft II Forum
Warcraft II => Server.War2.ru => Topic started by: Igognito on November 10, 2016, 11:59:15 AM
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Hi all,
Yesterday I implemented the ELO formulas for ladder.
I'm starting this forum topic to discuss some of the small details and issues.
======== Topic 1 Initialization =========
First lets discuss initialization of values:
We have a few options:
1) Do nothing in ~50 games the values should start be representative
2) Initialize some values by taking the wins - loses of old ladder games and assume you play with 1300 ELO
3) Initialize by re-introducing some games from the history
4) Initialize manual some players
all options have problems as you might think: (3) is the most hard to implement, (4) is biased.
(1) is the most representative but slow method
(2) is fast, requires not so much implementation but might not be representative.
====== Topic 2: Inflation/deflation =====
ELO has in-build mechanism to protect you from inflation/deflation.
There is a parameter K which affects how much the score increases/decreases per game.
By keeping that parameter High we get to have fast increases/decrease of our scores
By keeping that parameter Low we maintain the scores
the usual strategy is to keep the parameter High for the first games (right now set to 30 games)
then use a mid value for non Master players with more than some games
and a low value for Master players
All these are functions that we can tune. What is the best values always depends on the specific application of the formula.
We can have arbitrary K's and over time we will get it tuned to serve our purposes.
I want to point out that in the end it doesn't matter that much! ELO is a relative score. All that ELO says is that if you have a difference of 200 points it means that you would win/lose ~74% of the time.
The highest your ELO goes the harder it becomes to increase it and the lower it goes the harder to lower it.
So assuming that people will start playing in a short time (I estimate ~50 games per player) the ELO should be representative! Meaning that if you see players that are 200 elo higher than you, your chances to win are low.
Also a player playing vs a player with 200 less ELO will win few points of ELO.
That is another trick of the ELO... You want to play always against marginally better players than you! In that way you increase your score!
Actually, that is the only way to inflate your ELO. If you play easy picks then your ELO will slowly increase (in some cases you might even earn 0 ELO).
And when you will lose 1 game over a low ELO (just by chance) then you will lose loads of points (K)! As a result you want to play with players that are of equal power or slightly better than you.
====== Topic 3: Inactivity ====
This is the only real problem with ELO. If a player stops playing the ELO remains constant. Which means a player that reaches a high ELO might choose to become inactive in order to maintain their score.
This is not urgent but we need to find a counter for that!
One simple idea is after a time of inactivity we modify the K of that player. This is what most chess associations do, but only for players with no title.
======= Topic 4: Map specific ELO =====
Well if you see the ELO scores right now you will notice that the first player to get a push was Unu!
Obviously, all his games are nwtr! That is something we cant easily control.
Players like Smeagol or Unu or some only chop players will be able to gather high ELO by playing only 1 map and being unbeatable on that map.
I think PB and Chop maps are not taken in account currently.
I was thinking whether we should implement multiple ladders: GoW ladder, Chop ladder, PB ladder, NWTR ladder; Mixed ladder (includes any map).
Implementation wise it is not so hard as it sounds. But it will be a space burden for the DB.
======== Topic 5: Team play ELO; ffa ELO =====
It is doable but not so simple. Also it is not clear what it means.
There are more topics too speak about but lets start with these for now!
I started this topic to get some brain storming.
Cheers
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Elo. Not ELO
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======== Topic 1 Initialization =========
1) Do nothing in ~50 games the values should start be representative
because we have this new player mechanism - the usual strategy is to keep the parameter High for the first games (right now set to 30 games). I would call them "placement matches".
However, i believe this should be the only use of the k parameter.
Instead of inactivity-prevention mechanism, i would simply introduce some sort of point inflation that would promote activity (but very minor). It would encourage being active.
>map specific
I dont think chops, customs or pballs should have their ladders. I would like to see a "map of the week" system from some map pool (known bnes for starters) which would give 30% more elo points for a week for victories or something. The map of the week would rotate
team elo is irrevelant. ignore it
but you have your ideas, i have mine, lets see how your ladder turns out
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I'm assuming people get a +/- Elo bump at the time a ladder game is reported? If so, perhaps we could show that on the player.php page.
Example:
00Logan (#4) defeated SPB- (#12) on "Garden of War" for 35 Elo points at 03:20:45 on 11/10/2016.
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right now i believe the system is in beta phase and only a side stat on the page. maybe we can get commited or add sorting by Elo if it proves to be accurate and/or people like it
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It is in beta mode :-P
Keeping players active is one of our targets, the question is how to do so. I do not think by giving extra points you motivate them.
About map of the week, that might be complicated but interesting as by changing the map we will get people to play other maps too.
Also I was thinking that all tournament matches should count more!
This will be made possible by the tournament organizer providing the results of all matches.
By the way the ELO (Elo) system will not replace the ladder system.
ELO is only a system for comparing among players. Its target is to give you an indication of the chance you have to win.
Also a future target is to get Elo to be reported inside the game with a command like /stats (This is not something I can promise yet but I will look at it)
Also ELO will be a tool for creating the tiers! One good thing with ELO is that you cant cheat it easily after it normalizes.
Cheers
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Keeping players active is one of our targets, the question is how to do so. I do not think by giving extra points you motivate them.
?????? if youre trying to motivate them by ANY kind of ladders, RANKS (and in Elo ladder, POINTS affect RANKS) is the only thing u got
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To be honest, I think it would motivate them more if we gave prizes for reaching an ELO rating instead of giving more points...
say that we give you a special banner for reaching 2000 ELO...
in general ELO will be useful for several tasks :-)
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cool idea mang, would love to see this implemented
cheers!
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when you will lose 1 game over a low ELO (just by chance) then you will lose loads of points
With all the smurfs, I don't know how this would work, like if you vsing someone with alot higher elo, and you win, then he logs on his smurf his with low elo cause his worried he'll lose again and wins consistently and makes you lose it all + more ? I can name plenty of people that would do that just out of spite for losing a game or two to players that they're better against.
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That, and the risk of people newb bashing and dodging pros in general, is why we use a rung-operated case's system. The elo stuff is cool but I like it as just an added skill rating there for extra info more than as a ranking system, which would be horrible - just see the built-in ladder history for evidence.
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Can't we have 2 ladders that try both methods on 2 pages? We shouldn't encourage dodging and inactivity ever. It was pretty cool seeing the team ladder rating and your winning % with certain players etc... That was a cool metric to have that always interested me more than singles
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Yep, definitely can. Would like to fix double's ladder too even if we don't make an Elo version of that
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The built-in ladder is already an elo system. We've had it count all tvb games before. The result was always some 35-0 nobody sitting at the top after carefully bashing newbies on a gimmick map.
Here's my thought, put the elo ranking as a column on the ladder page, like it is in this test, and let people click on the column header to sort by elo ranking if they are interested
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Hi all,
===== Topic 1: ELO vs Ladder/ELO presentation ======
ELO and ladder are two different things. I thought that this was pretty clear.
The only relation the two have is that ELO ratings are computed by the same games that count for ladder.
Also that we currently present the ELO at the ladder page.
Well, I believe that the ELO should be presented in many different locations like:
Status page.
and ingame /stats command.
How doable is that is a second question.
======= Topic 2: ELO & Smurfs ==========
About smurfs and ELO and the scenario described.
Yes the system is not bullet proof and malicious usage can abuse it a bit; but the target is for people to get an idea of the players strength compared with their own strength instead of actually making a ranking.
ELO gives you statistical information. If player A has a score of 1700 and player B has a score of 1500 that means that player A has ~75% chance to win player B.
When a smurf starts winning the ELO will increase rapidly so; the smurf wont be so smurfish anymore ;-)
Of course I should add 2 more information in the site: how much games a player has played and their tier!
If you see a player with ELO 1300 and 0 games and a player with ELO 1300 and 100 games you realize that you have a high error on your estimation for the first player.
After the system stabilizes I would consider to use the opponent Game # information in order to protect from smurfs.
Example: Player A: ELO 1700; Games 300; Player S: ELO 1300; Games 0. Player S wins!
S earns their ELO points normally.
A would normally lose quite some ELO in this case but instead as Player S has 0 Games I reduce the amount of lost ELO. I haven't thought the formula and the math yet. But that is an easy Smurf protection we can do.
Thus ELO can become an anti Smurf protection tool after a while!
=========== Topic 3: Team ladder and Team ELO ==========
That should go to the TODO list...
Method 1
If teams are balanced (equal number of players) we could avg the ELO ratings.
Method 2
Take the ELO of the strongest team player as the basis.
Reduce all other ELO's by 1000 and sum them. (Yes players with less than 1000 ELO penalize the team)
This works also for non balanced teams
Method 3
Try to match player vs player
Best of Team A vs Best of Team B etc..
Handle it as multiple 1v1 games if balanced; otherwise devise something weird. lol
Finally we can use the math from: http://sradack.blogspot.pt/2008/06/elo-rating-system-multiple-players.html (http://sradack.blogspot.pt/2008/06/elo-rating-system-multiple-players.html)
This is similar with my summing approach.
Conclusion: It is possible but maybe not desirable.
Still this is no team score. This is just a way to award ELO points to each player for games with teams.
About team ladder, I haven't been involved on that but perhaps in the future I will...
Cheers
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I actually think the ELO ranking system has more interesting ramifications for a 2v2 ladder then a 1v1 ladder. The ladder would still be individual players with scores ranked in descending order based on their overall team play. You could compute the ELO of the team by averaging the players individual scores, and compute the points lost/won using the same formula you would use for singles, and then just apply that to both of the winners/losers appropriately.
This also creates interesting options for events that are somewhere in-between formal tournaments and casual games. For example, four players of similar skill could get together and play a series where they rotate teams with each player's goal being to try to increase their individual score by outperforming the other three in aggregate over the course of the series.
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I actually think the ELO ranking system has more interesting ramifications for a 2v2 ladder then a 1v1 ladder. The ladder would still be individual players with scores ranked in descending order based on their overall team play. You could compute the ELO of the team by averaging the players individual scores, and compute the points lost/won using the same formula you would use for singles, and then just apply that to both of the winners/losers appropriately.
This also creates interesting options for events that are somewhere in-between formal tournaments and casual games. For example, four players of similar skill could get together and play a series where they rotate teams with each player's goal being to try to increase their individual score by outperforming the other three in aggregate over the course of the series.
Nice try bro i will give u example. 4 skilled players playing 2x2 one team got 94 second got 811 4 going free dual while 9 playing 2x1 4 is wining game but 9 did nothing... Ranks, elo whatever will be never fair. And its bad idea some ppl will be not playing cause " i dont want lose my points and i will abuse with low skill players"
Player a> player b
B>c
C>a
Who is better?
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silence nup!
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szwagier gotta be one of the worst theorycrafters around
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Hi,
Ladder and ELO ratings are two different things.
Or at least we want to keep them different!
Now computing ELO for matches with multiple players is something I'm considering.
I'll see how and when to realize it though!
Cheers
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on-page column sorting added! Sepi is crushing the 1v1s since we set this thing up...
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Gj mousey! I hope this will help increasing activity!
This week I'm busy with my work but i might find sometime at Wednesday for us to continue the work.
Did you spoke to iL?
Cheerios
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Well guys i dont want to be the party breaker but ELO systeme is just retard rigged and waste of time.
Elo systeme just gonna allow peoples to abuse of the ladder.
Dont forget ELO ladder have always been our #1 ladder for many years.
So we already know what it is, but i think peoples just forget that.
Do you guys forget the integrated ladder in the game himself is a ELO systeme and as we all know this ladder have always been useless.
The only thing it bring is to see more newbs in the top ladder.
If newbs want to climb this ELO ladder they just need to play lot of other newbs steal ther points and they gonna be top 10 with 42-0.
At least in our actual ladder systeme winning over newbs not gonna bring you up in the ladder.
If you want to climb in our actual ladder you will have to beat someone ranked over you.
Im pretty sure too our actual ladder is not on perfect condition and need some work, but elo systeme not gonna bring nothing good where peoples can chose ther matches.
Elo systeme is a ladder systeme for random games that the systeme suppose to choose for you, elo systeme is not for peoples who choose ther own matchs cuz at the end it just finish as a rigged systeme.
Let's take by exemple someone like me... Im probably not the best, but im probably top 15 no doubt.
The things is i dont really used to play against newbe, i always play against the best player of the server, so if i start losing alot against them im gonna lose alot of ELO and gonna get rank as the worst player of the game...
While other newbs gonna play against other newbs and gonna start to climb over me.
Thats the kind of systeme ELO is for this game especially.
And thats the reason why ELO systeme is all random games choose by the systeme himself.
Like warcraft 3, starcraft II, Heroes of the storm, league of legend, dota, smith, overwatch, heartstone, etc, etc..
You cant choose who you want to play in ELO systeme, it make no sens lol.
GOOD luck.
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Hi Equinox,
In case you didn't notice. The ELO is complement to the Ladder system.
We are not making an ELO based ladder. We kept the ladder as is and we added an ELO computation.
The ELO is a useful measure for finding players similarly powered with you.
ELO mathematically gets stabilized after a while and converges to your actual score.
ELO inflation is very fast handled when you get a few defeats from lower ELO players than you.
Cheers
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Hi Equinox,
In case you didn't notice. The ELO is complement to the Ladder system.
We are not making an ELO based ladder. We kept the ladder as is and we added an ELO computation.
The ELO is a useful measure for finding players similarly powered with you.
ELO mathematically gets stabilized after a while and converges to your actual score.
ELO inflation is very fast handled when you get a few defeats from lower ELO players than you.
Cheers
How is that mathematically gets stabilized after a while and converges to my actual score.
We have an Elo ladder integrate in the game himself, go to the game click LADDER on the left pannel and you will see one, this ladder have been abuse for years and years by cheater and newbs.
Elo systeme dosent work when you choose your game dude, Elo systeme work when the game AUTOMATICALY choose game for you against similar Elo player as you.
And as you can see there no automatic random game seeking mode integrate in this game.. So Elo systeme make totally no sens in this game since peoples just have to choose against who they want to play or not.
I think you dont understand how ELO systeme work.
Elo systeme need to be manage by the game himself, not by the players lol.
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Well it's not hurting anything, it's not a bad thing to have even if it isn't perfect. It's less flawed then the built-in ELO ladder since it uses the same game requirements as the ladder, 1v1 classic-style maps only, so no abusing by playing pball or w/e.
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on-page column sorting added!
Nice!
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Hi Equinox,
In case you didn't notice. The ELO is complement to the Ladder system.
We are not making an ELO based ladder. We kept the ladder as is and we added an ELO computation.
The ELO is a useful measure for finding players similarly powered with you.
ELO mathematically gets stabilized after a while and converges to your actual score.
ELO inflation is very fast handled when you get a few defeats from lower ELO players than you.
Cheers
How is that mathematically gets stabilized after a while and converges to my actual score.
We have an Elo ladder integrate in the game himself, go to the game click LADDER on the left pannel and you will see one, this ladder have been abuse for years and years by cheater and newbs.
Elo systeme dosent work when you choose your game dude, Elo systeme work when the game AUTOMATICALY choose game for you against similar Elo player as you.
And as you can see there no automatic random game seeking mode integrate in this game.. So Elo systeme make totally no sens in this game since peoples just have to choose against who they want to play or not.
I think you dont understand how ELO systeme work.
Elo systeme need to be manage by the game himself, not by the players lol.
I actually agree with you about this, that if you can carefully select your competition you can exploit the ELO scoring system to get a high score. But that's why I like what Igognito said in the post you quoted.
In case you didn't notice. The ELO is complement to the Ladder system.
We are not making an ELO based ladder. We kept the ladder as is and we added an ELO computation.
The ladder ranking system is NOT based on Elo score. The elo score is just a nice addition that gives you more information. Therefore, there's not really much point in people trying to manipulate it, and even if they do, they won't rise to the top of the ladder. So I don't think it's likely to be abused as it has been before.
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Hi Equinox,
In case you didn't notice. The ELO is complement to the Ladder system.
We are not making an ELO based ladder. We kept the ladder as is and we added an ELO computation.
The ELO is a useful measure for finding players similarly powered with you.
ELO mathematically gets stabilized after a while and converges to your actual score.
ELO inflation is very fast handled when you get a few defeats from lower ELO players than you.
Cheers
How is that mathematically gets stabilized after a while and converges to my actual score.
We have an Elo ladder integrate in the game himself, go to the game click LADDER on the left pannel and you will see one, this ladder have been abuse for years and years by cheater and newbs.
Elo systeme dosent work when you choose your game dude, Elo systeme work when the game AUTOMATICALY choose game for you against similar Elo player as you.
And as you can see there no automatic random game seeking mode integrate in this game.. So Elo systeme make totally no sens in this game since peoples just have to choose against who they want to play or not.
I think you dont understand how ELO systeme work.
Elo systeme need to be manage by the game himself, not by the players lol.
I actually agree with you about this, that if you can carefully select your competition you can exploit the ELO scoring system to get a high score. But that's why I like what Igognito said in the post you quoted.
In case you didn't notice. The ELO is complement to the Ladder system.
We are not making an ELO based ladder. We kept the ladder as is and we added an ELO computation.
The ladder ranking system is NOT based on Elo score. The elo score is just a nice addition that gives you more information. Therefore, there's not really much point in people trying to manipulate it, and even if they do, they won't rise to the top of the ladder. So I don't think it's likely to be abused as it has been before.
It give absolutly nothing, it just give impression some newbs are good and some good player are bad, its a shame for good player who get ther stats ruined by this non sens systeme.
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The ELO computes a comparable score based on an 90 degrees rotated exponential function.
As a result even if you try to cheat the system by playing all the time weak players you will stop earning ELO points (YES you can earn 0 points)
And if you lose you will lose Loads of points!
Thus over a large amount of games the score convergences to your real capacity!
The highest ELO does not necessary means the Best player! That is why we do not use it for Ladder.
ELO works with comparing 2 players! And tells you what is the chance of player A wins player B.
After the system has enough games the score will represent your ELO. If you get to have 1600 ELO. Players with 1400 or less should probably avoid you as they will have a low chance to win. But a 1500 player still has a good chance to win you.
Now if you are picking up on new players (1300 ELO but high K) and you (1600 with mid K) you will earn some points but the new players will soon drop to a low ELO and that will not give you any points whatsoever.
If I remember well (but I can do the math if people want) the line where you gain 0 ELO is around 400ELO difference.
To find Newbs with high ELO that will give you easy picks on points will be rare!
So in the end; ELO works.
Furthermore, lets take the worst case scenario. Someone uses N accounts on 2 pcs in order to boost his 1 account.
The person could use some accounts to lose and some to win in order to try and boost his 1 account at the end of MANY MANY games.
That 1 account will reach to have a hugely inflated ELO and no one will play with it! Or the Masters will play in order to increase their ELO and destroy the player.
Finally, in such an extreme case the admins could detect it and then ban reset/ban the account.
If people think that these math will help them to appreciate the ELO scores when I have time I can plot them for you.
I can even try to get you the optimal strategy for breaking the formula!
But do you actually think it worth's it?
The whole point here is to promote people of using their Account in order to increase their ELO. Also it gives a tool to the somewhat new players to select opponents.
cheers
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im probably top 15 no doubt.
I can name at least 30 Players better then you off the top of my head.
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The ELO computes a comparable score based on an 90 degrees rotated exponential function.
As a result even if you try to cheat the system by playing all the time weak players you will stop earning ELO points (YES you can earn 0 points)
And if you lose you will lose Loads of points!
Thus over a large amount of games the score convergences to your real capacity!
The highest ELO does not necessary means the Best player! That is why we do not use it for Ladder.
ELO works with comparing 2 players! And tells you what is the chance of player A wins player B.
After the system has enough games the score will represent your ELO. If you get to have 1600 ELO. Players with 1400 or less should probably avoid you as they will have a low chance to win. But a 1500 player still has a good chance to win you.
Now if you are picking up on new players (1300 ELO but high K) and you (1600 with mid K) you will earn some points but the new players will soon drop to a low ELO and that will not give you any points whatsoever.
If I remember well (but I can do the math if people want) the line where you gain 0 ELO is around 400ELO difference.
To find Newbs with high ELO that will give you easy picks on points will be rare!
So in the end; ELO works.
Furthermore, lets take the worst case scenario. Someone uses N accounts on 2 pcs in order to boost his 1 account.
The person could use some accounts to lose and some to win in order to try and boost his 1 account at the end of MANY MANY games.
That 1 account will reach to have a hugely inflated ELO and no one will play with it! Or the Masters will play in order to increase their ELO and destroy the player.
Finally, in such an extreme case the admins could detect it and then ban reset/ban the account.
If people think that these math will help them to appreciate the ELO scores when I have time I can plot them for you.
I can even try to get you the optimal strategy for breaking the formula!
But do you actually think it worth's it?
The whole point here is to promote people of using their Account in order to increase their ELO. Also it gives a tool to the somewhat new players to select opponents.
cheers
Im done with this guy, this guys think hes playing league of legend and understand nothing about how the Elo work lol.
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Lol Equinox...
I do not even know what league of legends is!
fyi, ELO is the most established measure in competitive gaming.
if you think you can cheat it/abuse it, feel free to do so!
Happy gaming in your efforts ;-)
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Lol Equinox...
I do not even know what league of legends is!
fyi, ELO is the most established measure in competitive gaming.
if you think you can cheat it/abuse it, feel free to do so!
Happy gaming in your efforts ;-)
Elo is the most established measure in competitive gaming with AUTO random CHOOSING PICK by the GAME HIMSELF idiot.
There no any fucking game except our 20 years old game like warcraft II and starcraft I where Elo ladder allow you to choose your opponent.
If they switch for auto random pick by the systeme is not for fun.
Its because ELO systeme mean absolutly no shit when you choose your opponents.
There no actual 2016 games with Elo ladder where you can choose your opponent yourself.
You an idiot who try to act like a smart guys with BIG words, but you definitly know nothing about Elo systeme.
Go to sleep son.
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Well guys i dont want to be the party breaker but ELO systeme is just retard rigged and waste of time.
Elo systeme just gonna allow peoples to abuse of the ladder.
Dont forget ELO ladder have always been our #1 ladder for many years.
So we already know what it is, but i think peoples just forget that.
Do you guys forget the integrated ladder in the game himself is a ELO systeme and as we all know this ladder have always been useless.
The only thing it bring is to see more newbs in the top ladder.
If newbs want to climb this ELO ladder they just need to play lot of other newbs steal ther points and they gonna be top 10 with 42-0.
At least in our actual ladder systeme winning over newbs not gonna bring you up in the ladder.
If you want to climb in our actual ladder you will have to beat someone ranked over you.
Im pretty sure too our actual ladder is not on perfect condition and need some work, but elo systeme not gonna bring nothing good where peoples can chose ther matches.
Elo systeme is a ladder systeme for random games that the systeme suppose to choose for you, elo systeme is not for peoples who choose ther own matchs cuz at the end it just finish as a rigged systeme.
Let's take by exemple someone like me... Im probably not the best, but im probably top 15 no doubt.
The things is i dont really used to play against newbe, i always play against the best player of the server, so if i start losing alot against them im gonna lose alot of ELO and gonna get rank as the worst player of the game...
While other newbs gonna play against other newbs and gonna start to climb over me.
Thats the kind of systeme ELO is for this game especially.
And thats the reason why ELO systeme is all random games choose by the systeme himself.
Like warcraft 3, starcraft II, Heroes of the storm, league of legend, dota, smith, overwatch, heartstone, etc, etc..
You cant choose who you want to play in ELO systeme, it make no sens lol.
GOOD luck.
Welcome back Equinox <3
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Some historical statistic with rating:
http://replays.war2.ru/tournaments/index.html (http://replays.war2.ru/tournaments/index.html)
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Wow, you updated that replay site to implement tournaments?