ATTN Russians

[tk[as]]

thank you for taking time to answer iL. Wishing for the best.. for all sides.. Hoping this all calmly de-escalates.. but stilll trying to calculate all possibilities.

[iL]

im starting to question whether putin will succeed or not.

As i see here: everybody is sure he will win against Ukraine.

media in U.S. seems to say "entire world against putin right now"

Yes, the entire western world. China actively abstains, possibly they will help Russia. Other asian countries also wait.

might be fake news. very well could be... U.S. media makes it sound like most russians against Putin right now.

Many russians dislike Putin's activity against Ukraine, many people applaud him.

but if it's even remotely true... Putin is going to have 2 options: 1) continue with mission and risk economic collapse or militaristic retaliation from western nations (i think economic collapse is possible. western retaliation unlikely)   .. or 2) turn around and appear weak.

Nobody trust he will turn around. That would be absolute stupidity. We ALREADY got all the sanctions. Putin said all the risks are calculated. We have nothing but hope and believe that.
And yes, economic collapse is almost our new reality, russians are going to get ready to it, as possibe to get ready...

Another problem is USA: that inflation risk in USD, stock markets are growing for too long time, the question is WHEN the downfall will happen. There's a big chance these mutual sanctions can be a heavy blow to USA economic. So, it's time for you to get ready to it too...

Right now Ukraine is trying to fast track its way into NATO it sounds. If that happens, Russia will be invading a NATO country... and he will have almost no choice but to retreat... or risk a war that will most likely escalate to nuclear magnitude.

If NATO will take Ukraine now, that will be absolute stupidity. Putin will not stop as he ALREADY attacks Ukraine, so NATO will have to choose: to attack Russia and turn the world to WW3 or to not help Ukraine and shows weakness.
BTW, country being in war with someone can't join NATO, so i think that scenario is extremely unlikely.
Same as unlikely scenario that Ukraine join the EU now.

[~ToRa~]

I think IL’s point about American inflation is pretty spot on. As it is America has effectively stopped pumping oil. With the sanction’s on Russia one of the world’s biggest oil suppliers that will effectively exasperate runaway inflation in America even more.

We are certainly living in at a time in history we will all remember no matter what happens.

[iL]

Hoping this all calmly de-escalates.. but stilll trying to calculate all possibilities.

My thoughts:
The most possible scenario, is Putin will take Kiev, denazify and demilitarize the Ukraine and sanctions will grow up all the time.
After that a de-escalation will happen eventually.

[Certified MENSA Genius Brain (smart)]

Europe is who’s really going to get the squeeze here. Russian gas pipelines being shut down making them more reliant on more expensive gas from the US. Pulled deeper into a US-centric economic orbit.  China and even Brazil staying neutral means an alternative market to compete with the US-centric economy that is sanctioning half the world

[{Lance}]

Putin will take Kiev, denazify and demilitarize the Ukraine and sanctions will grow up all the time

I have hope that the Ukraine citizens will drag out taking of Kiev for a very long time but I agree,  eventually,  it's going to crumble.  If it cant be taken without minimal loss of civilians (which appears to have at least been attempted),  he's simply going to carpet bomb the place,  level it into the stone age and then there will literally be nothing left.  Is that a victory?  In his eyes,  yes.

Everything you said is likely to be true in the future (maybe days, maybe weeks,  who knows),  but I am curious,  how exactly is he going to "De-Nazify" a population/government that has no Nazis in it?  For example,  the president of Ukraine is literally Jewish.  Jewish and Nazi dont belong in the same universe let alone the same sentence

I tell you what Ukraine does have a lot of that needs to be cleaned up though,  oligarch corruption.  It's just as bad if not worse than Russia itself.

[Certified MENSA Genius Brain (smart)]

US elected a black president, guess there must be no racism in the US

#1: Ukraine actually is infested with nazis.  They formally folded a literal Nazi battalion into their national guard.  They have some nazis in elected positions.  Here's a tweet from the official ukrainian national guard twitter, showing off how the nazi battalion is greasing bullets with pig lard to shoot muslim "orcs" with. Invalid Tweet ID
 These are the types of people most invested in the ukrainian identity so they have always been the most fervently anti-russia.  They admire a nationalist militia, the organization of ukrainian nationalists, that ethnically cleansed polish people, killing tens of thousands of women and children, and they fly their flag everywhere.

[{Lance}]

Interesting,  so this is essentially the same type of group that the Russians have (chechen "Special Purpose Military Units"),  extremists that go over the top with brutality and cruelty.

[iL]

I have hope that the Ukraine citizens will drag out taking of Kiev for a very long time but I agree,  eventually,  it's going to crumble.  If it cant be taken without minimal loss of civilians (which appears to have at least been attempted),  he's simply going to carpet bomb the place,  level it into the stone age and then there will literally be nothing left.  Is that a victory?  In his eyes,  yes.

Official media in Russia tells (also Putin set the same task) that russian army use pinpoint strikes to military objects, they don't use aviation or weapons of mass destruction against cities and even against enemies soldiers. Only military objects. They also don't destruct brigdes, communication channels, etc.
about 3-4 days of attacks, huge part of territories freed (or occupied, depending on point of view), but infrastructure still working almost 100%: electricity, internet, water supply and so on.
So they say carpet bombs would be unacceptable way for russian army.

Another side, as they say: nazi (ukrainian army) use their (ukrainian) civilians as a shield. They know russians will not attack with risk of killing ukrainian civilians.
Something like that...

but I am curious,  how exactly is he going to "De-Nazify" a population/government that has no Nazis in it?

That is a good question. There are different assumptions, but nobody knows definitely. We just have to hope and believe Putin has a plan

I tell you what Ukraine does have a lot of that needs to be cleaned up though,  oligarch corruption.  It's just as bad if not worse than Russia itself.

Putin said nothing about "decorrution". Only about "denazification and demilitarization"

[iL]

Interesting,  so this is essentially the same type of group that the Russians have (chechen "Special Purpose Military Units"),  extremists that go over the top with brutality and cruelty.

Yes, exactly,
chechen "Special Purpose Military Units" are being used to knock out the nazi from cities and fortified facilities. Their tasks: to attack nazi, not touching civilians.

[{Lance}]

Official media in Russia tells (also Putin set the same task) that russian army use pinpoint strikes to military objects, they don't use aviation or weapons of mass destruction against cities and even against enemies soldiers. Only military objects. They also don't destruct brigdes, communication channels, etc.
about 3-4 days of attacks, huge part of territories freed (or occupied, depending on point of view), but infrastructure still working almost 100%: electricity, internet, water supply and so on.
So they say carpet bombs would be unacceptable way for russian army.

So far,  I have to admit, the evidence does support this.  There hasnt been much in the way of purposely targeting civilian populations (yet).  There have been some,  but it appears to have been possibly unintended.  Time will tell if it remains that way.  I cant say I have much hope that it will.  Have you seen the video of the tank that ran out of gas and a citizen pulled up and asked if they needed a tow back to Russia,  that was pretty damn funny lol.

Here it is,  I dont know how accurate the english subtitles are but I bet its pretty accurate based on the giggling that can be heard:

[iL]

One of recent videos from east Ukraine observer.
Trying to proof russians are not bad guys.

Just a video with english translation

[Zelya]

2014. Russia occuped Crimia, started invation to  Donbass. All the initial battles where started by russians mercenaries. Read about Girkin, Borodai and others who occuped Ukainian cities during the staring period of war. Later Russia sent weapon, instructors, mercenaries and also helped with fire from its territorry.
Now they told about 8-years war. Yes it was a war and Russia has started it.
But today they officialy go to another country with regular army.  They told you that they want to destroy mistic nazi from Ukraine. Even Russian army blieved in this shit at the starting of invation. They thought that only a few pelople will fight agianst them. They thought that they will have flowers from civilians but they have bullets now. All the Ukriane is fightning against Russia now. So all the Ukriane is "nazi" for Russia. And they realized this two days ago and sterted to destory everybody. Just imagine your neighbor county tell you "I don't like your goverment, I'll send my army to destory it. And don't touch me."
You can see a lot of Russian videos. But... Two days ago they told you "no losses in Ukriane". They told you "2/3 of Ukraine is feilad in 10 hrs".  They told you "Zelensky leave Kyiv the first day of invation". Do you still believe them? I don't tell you that all the Ukrianian information is totally true. But read both sides. Comapre them. Make a decigion which information is more realisitc. Check this information later. And don't believe to people who lie you every day.
Il post here info from "east Ukraine observer". Peson who live in Moscow. But even pro-russian observers are laughing at him. Today text from Girkin (official military criminal, he started war in Cremia and Donbass and one of persons responsible for destorying МН17): "уверенно рассказывать о "скором окружении всей группировки ВСУ" могут только Юрий Подоляка". And while you believe to bloggers like Pododliaka you are as stupid as he.

Who am I? I'm 'nazi' from Lviv the main cidadel of nazi. I'm a person who 'killing Russians people last 30 years'. Some of you knows me better and they know how I 'hate Russians and Russian language'. Some of you were in Lviv and we were 'destroying Russian people from East toghther'.
But now I'm sure that Russia is the biggest shit in the world. Not all people from this crazy country, but most of them.

Russian Warship Go F* Yourself

[Certified MENSA Genius Brain (smart)]

^^ See, to me this began before the eastern Ukraine breakaway regions, when the euromaidan overthrew Yanukovych.  But the above post demonstrates the problem with this invasion imo.  Like, not only is there the violence and destruction that war begets, but what exactly is the plan?  will people whose country was just invaded be content to allow a new pro-Russian government?  How will it be upheld without an occupation?  Without more violence?

Best idea I can come up with is that the goal is to obtain a peace agreement very favorably to Russia (autonomy and final peace for luhansk and donetsk, promise not to join nato & neutrality, banning Right Sector, somethnig like that).

[tk[as]]

Do you believe there are a lot of Nazis in your region @iL ?

In the U.S. the left will accuse someone of being racist to discredit someone. Even if the person isn't racists. They accuse them of being racist to get public support. If they say someone is racist enough, people start to believe it.

Do you think is the same in Russia? They accuse people of being Nazis just so public will support attacks on the person being accused of being a Nazi, or are there really a lot of Nazis in that region?