Author Topic: market discussion  (Read 67013 times)

Offline Certified MENSA Genius Brain (smart)

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2020, 12:09:37 PM »
i dont think there will be a second stimulus, and i think the entire economy is a house of cards.  the options are: an even more expansive police state to keep the have-nots subjugated, or a communist revolution.  i hope my input helps you with your portfolio
    

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2020, 01:31:06 PM »
Greatly insightful sir
 Thank you 

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2020, 10:49:07 PM »
Big thanks to Wargasm for putting me on to the Think Or Swim platform. Has great charts. and great indicators. Navigating the platform took some time to learn but it's good stuff.

This chart is of the Dow jones over the last 3 months. Each "candle" on the chart represents 1 day on the Dow Jones.

The indicator lines moving through the charts are a variation of a moving average (three middle lines) known as Keltner Channels, and bollinger bands (red and green lines) that are for the most part extended outside of the candle sticks and the keltner channels.

If you see the "hi 27850.21" bubble indicating the high of the day, the candle sticks are extended outside of the bollinger bands. That signals overbought territory. It's suggesting the market as a whole is essentially getting too greedy, and that a pull back is likely.

it's pretty rare to see the dow jones go beyond the bollinger bands on a time frame like this. so it was a big signal by itself that a pull back was likely.


next study down is volume. not a whole lot going on there other than maybe some increased volume.. and that there were 7 consecutive green days in a row, when the longest stretch of green or red days prior to that was 3 days in a row. So it supported the argument that the market was most likely way overbought.

next study is the RSI indicator. there are 2 horizontal lines. 30 and 70. If the line crosses 70 mark it turns red which indicates overbought. If it drops below the 30 mark it indicates over sold... so again this supports the argument that the market was in overbought territory, and was due for correction.


next indicator down is the DMI. When red line crosses above red line, it indicates downward trend. stocks moving down. when green line crosses above red line it indicates upward trend. the blue line shows the strength of the trend. when blue line is sloping up the trend(in either direction.. up or down) is strong it has good momentum. sloping down means trend is losing momentum..


so the DMI is showing us that clearly there was an upward trend that reversed momentum on like June 9th... which wasnt as big of a predictor in forecasting the down turn as the other indicators.

but if you were looking at this chart on a daily basis, you would have had a lot of evidence supporting a likely pull back/reversal/correction in the market by June 7th. 2 days before it actually started happening.





« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 12:01:54 AM by tk[as] »

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2020, 10:48:20 AM »
Tomorrow is a big day for GNUS .. it's a new streaming platform that is extremely kid friendly. tons of solid content from entertainment to educational.

free streaming platform that looks to make profits from ad revenue and royalties from toys sold.

they have partnerships with all of the big names: walmart, netflix, amazon, and many more.

tomorrow is their launch date. it could be an eventful day.

regardless of how tomorrow goes, GNUS is probably a good longer term investment. there is a lot of potential with this company. they're doing everything right.



important to note that they're essentially covid proof. if kids are stuck at home because of covid, the free GNUS streaming platform will be very appealing to parents.

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #19 on: June 15, 2020, 10:24:16 PM »
Welp. FEDS "save" the day again. They announced they will continue overnight REPO operations.. which is basically inject liquidity into the market by buying corporate bonds.. which is essentially another form of a bailout for large corporations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/the-fed-says-it-is-going-to-start-buying-individual-corporate-bonds.html?__source=facebook%7Cmain

Here is the current scheduled pumps/injections

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details#current-schedule


this is nuts. the second the market shows signs of behaving like it had some connection to reality, the FED intervened and saved the day.

gonna ride the wave back up until i see signs of resistance. Time to make some adjustments to my portfolio.

i think i'll keep my put options for now, and wait to see what Jerome Powell (chair of the FED) says tomorrow and wednesday. He's supposed to be talking.

But between then and now i'll probably buy a call option. Possibly BA.. I can see another bounce up from them.

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #20 on: June 15, 2020, 10:28:31 PM »
i feel like the more the FED intervenes, the further the market is disconnected from reality... and the further the market gets from reality, the harder the market will react when reality finally sets in. The FED can't pump it forever without serious long lasting consequences. At least i don't think they can.

I think it's going to be a mess when the FED eventually says "ok.. we can't keep doing this. seriously. we're done"
« Last Edit: June 15, 2020, 10:49:58 PM by tk[as] »

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2020, 09:38:06 PM »
I went to buy a BA call option this morning.. BA gapped up over night. I figured the BA call option was a good bet after the after-hours gap-up. Went to buy the call and they were more than I was willing to pay.

saved my ass because it just went downhill from there.

i held the APPL and HD puts.. sold a shit stock that wasnt doing anything and that i never should have been in to begin with for more than 1-2 days (LK)

GNUS looking bad.. and its not fun to watch, but i'll almost definitely hold until earnings aug 17th. If it hits $3 im going to have a decision to make tho =/
« Last Edit: June 16, 2020, 09:40:27 PM by tk[as] »

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2020, 11:01:10 PM »
Going to play SWBI tomorrow i think (Smith & Wesson Brands Inc). 1 day play.

earnings are on Thursday and guns and ammo have been wiped off shelves nearly everywhere. Im not going to stick around till earnings, but i suspect tomorrow will be another big day for them tomorrow.

edit:  ... not sure exactly how long i will play this after looking through the historical chart. if earnings are good (which im pretty confident they will be) it could be in play for a couple weeks.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 07:13:15 AM by tk[as] »

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2020, 11:08:09 PM »
in hindsight i should have known the BA call option was too much risk any way. many more covid cases being reported. Beijing basically quarantining itself again. it was stupid of me to think anything airline related could get another pump.

Offline Certified MENSA Genius Brain (smart)

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2020, 04:46:36 PM »
i feel like the more the FED intervenes, the further the market is disconnected from reality... and the further the market gets from reality, the harder the market will react when reality finally sets in. The FED can't pump it forever without serious long lasting consequences. At least i don't think they can.

I think it's going to be a mess when the FED eventually says "ok.. we can't keep doing this. seriously. we're done"
Exactly.  I don't think the Fed will ever actually stop if they can help it, but the whole thing is building toward a massive collapse.
    

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #25 on: June 17, 2020, 05:48:48 PM »
Not much going on with SWBI today. There has been a lot of consolidation... i think it's just in anticipation for the Earnings. If earnings are good, the stock should celebrate, if not.. it's going to tank. That's my theory any way. I cant see how earnings won't be amazing based on what i've experienced trying to buy ammo.

I'm definitely late to this game, and im kicking myself for not thinking of it sooner. Live and learn.. I do have a window to potentially take nice profits if earnings go my way i think.



GNUS i think has bottomed out. Seems like a ton of resistance around the $3 mark which is good, because thats the mark i really dont want it to go past. Also a ton of resistance approaching 5... massive short sellers. I'm hoping they fade away soon and open the doors for growth before August 17 (GNUS expected to report earnings)


Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #26 on: June 20, 2020, 05:14:58 PM »
I'm holding on to GNUS. it got below $3 but it did it the day before a lot of short positions expired. I actually bought more GNUS around the 2.90 mark.

There are still a lot of short positions around the $3 and $5 mark, but i really believe the stock is going to turn around. Big players are buying massive amounts of shares.

The initial growth of GNUS is going to be a tough battle because it burned so many people, so the people "holding the bag" from the initial pump and dump have bad feelings towards the stock, and will sell the first opportunity they get. There are still a lot of short positions on the stock, and its going to be a battle on the way up.. But I do believe the trend has officially reversed, and we should see growth in the coming days/weeks/months. It will be a battle. I'm anticipating a long uphill battle but I feel comfortable staying in it right now.

Still holding my APPL and HD put options, They havent been making me money lately because of the FED's apparent willingness to prop the market up, but with all of this talk of covid, high unemployment, and recession i do think the market is on a downward trend now. I'm expecting the put options to pay off over the next few days/weeks.

I was indeed late to the game on Smith and Wesson (SWBI). the earnings play didnt work out. I got out of SWBI, and im looking for to potentially buy a put option on SWBI... Everyone has been buying their guns and ammo the last 3 months, and they're stocked up for the most part.. and SWBI is typically a "Buy it when shit hits the fan!" typ stock. Shit is still hitting the fan to some extent, but im expecting revenue to decrease for SWBI over the following weeks.

It doesnt sound like the U.S. will quarantine itself if there is a 2nd wave of covid, and it sounds like there will be a 2nd wave.. so im expecting airline stocks, travel related stocks, and other stocks that involve large groups of people in close proximity to eachother to take big hits again.

With the exception of GNUS, i'm extremely bearish on the rest of the market. Looking for opportunities to short companies.

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #27 on: June 21, 2020, 10:15:44 AM »
SHLL and IDEX worth looking into.

Nio and nkla too.

Some more speculative than others
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 10:24:06 AM by tk[as] »

Offline tk[as]

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2020, 12:50:25 PM »
Going to test a new strategy I was thinking of.

I'm going to use a scanner to find low float stocks, stocks that are really easy to move. Then filter out the ones that have had recent upward moves (10%-200% gainers in a day).. once I've identified those, I'll look at the news on them and pick out 1-2 a night and buy them at market price. Like 100 shares or whatever. Il put a stop loss at 20% Loss for each stock, and a limit sell order for 100%. Auto sell the stock if I get 100% return on it... and then just let it ride.

In theory, as long as I'm right more than 1 out of 5 times, I should profit.

Gonna test it out and see how it goes.

Offline hop

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Re: market discussion
« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2020, 10:46:36 PM »
Hahah I just looked at SOLO and got a headache.  Why are they consistently carrying more cash than PPE?  And they're running huge operating losses, but only like a 3rd of it is coming from R&D, which seems weird for a company apparently pushing hard to get into a new market (3 wheeled single seat EVs?).  I didn't try to figure out why they carry so much cash though.